Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Utah Mammoth at Philadelphia Flyers

All Utah Mammoth predictions · All Philadelphia Flyers predictions

NHL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 4:00 PM

The model's call
Utah Mammoth to win
Model confidence 59.7%
Books consensus 59.7%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Utah MammothPhiladelphia Flyers
BetRivers -165 +138
DraftKings -155 +130
Fanatics -165 +135
FanDuel -166 +138
Novig -174 +135
Caesars -164 +139

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Mammoth −1.5
priced 38.0% to cover · 4 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 44.9% over · 5 books
Spread by book MammothFlyers
BetRivers −1.5 +155 +1.5 -195
DraftKings −1.5 +142 +1.5 -170
Fanatics −1.5 +150 +1.5 -185
FanDuel −1.5 +152 +1.5 -188
Total by bookOverUnder
BetRivers 6.5 +107 6.5 -132
DraftKings 6.5 +114 6.5 -135
Fanatics 6.5 +115 6.5 -140
FanDuel 6.5 +114 6.5 -140
Caesars 6.5 +112 6.5 -137

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Utah MammothPhiladelphia Flyers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 59.7% 40.3%
Best book price incl. vig 60.8% 41.8%
Kalshi contract price 60.5% 39.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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