Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers

All Edmonton Oilers predictions · All New York Rangers predictions

NHL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 6:00 PM

The model's call
New York Rangers to win
Model confidence 53.0%
Books consensus 53.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Edmonton OilersNew York Rangers
BetRivers +102 -122
DraftKings +105 -125
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +105 -126
Novig -102 -122
Caesars +104 -122

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Rangers −1.5
priced 33.2% to cover · 4 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books
Spread by book OilersRangers
BetRivers +1.5 -265 −1.5 +205
DraftKings +1.5 -230 −1.5 +190
Fanatics +1.5 -235 −1.5 +185
FanDuel +1.5 -235 −1.5 +184
Total by bookOverUnder
BetRivers 6.5 -113 6.5 -109
DraftKings 6.5 -108 6.5 -112
Fanatics 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
FanDuel 6.5 -118 6.5 -104
Caesars 6.5 -110 6.5 -112

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Edmonton OilersNew York Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.0% 53.0%
Best book price incl. vig 48.8% 55.0%
Kalshi contract price 49.0% 51.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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