San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves

MLB · Tuesday, July 21, 2026 · 7:16 PM

The model's call

Atlanta Braves to win

Model confidence 56.6%

Books consensus 56.6%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	San Diego Padres	Atlanta Braves
BetMGM	+120	-145
BetRivers	+120	-143
DraftKings	+120	-145
ESPN BET	+125	-145
Fanatics	+120	-145
FanDuel	+122	-144
Hard Rock Bet	+120	-145
Caesars	+122	-145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	San Diego Padres	Atlanta Braves
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	43.4%	56.6%
Best book price incl. vig	44.4%	58.8%
Kalshi contract price	43.5%	56.5%
Polymarket contract price	43.5%	56.5%
Markets average	43.5%	56.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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