Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic

All Boston Celtics predictions · All Orlando Magic predictions

NBA · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 3:40 PM

The model's call
Boston Celtics to win
Model confidence 68.8%
Books consensus 68.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Boston CelticsOrlando Magic
BetMGM -250 +200
BetRivers -265 +200
DraftKings -258 +210
ESPN BET -260 +215
FanDuel -245 +200
Hard Rock Bet -260 +210
Novig -239 +223
Caesars -250 +205

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Celtics −6.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books
Total
O/U 221.5
priced 51.1% over · 3 books, 4 on another number
opened 223.5
Spread by book CelticsMagic
BetMGM −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
BetRivers −6.5 -108 +6.5 -113
DraftKings −6.5 -108 +6.5 -112
ESPN BET −6.5 -105 +6.5 -115
FanDuel −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
Caesars −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 223.5 -105 223.5 -115
BetRivers 221.5 -112 221.5 -109
DraftKings 222.5 -105 222.5 -115
ESPN BET 221.5 -115 221.5 -105
FanDuel 221.5 -115 221.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 222.5 -115 222.5 -105
Caesars 223.5 -110 223.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Boston CelticsOrlando Magic
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 68.8% 31.2%
Best book price incl. vig 70.5% 31.0%
Kalshi contract price 70.2% 29.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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