Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers

All Brooklyn Nets predictions · All Indiana Pacers predictions

NBA · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 5:10 PM

The model's call
Indiana Pacers to win
Model confidence 60.9%
Books consensus 60.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Brooklyn NetsIndiana Pacers
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +145 -180
DraftKings +145 -175
ESPN BET +145 -170
FanDuel +140 -168
Hard Rock Bet +150 -180
Novig +150 -160
Caesars +148 -175

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Pacers −4.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 3 books, 4 on another number
Total
O/U 230.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book NetsPacers
BetMGM +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
BetRivers +3.5 -103 −3.5 -121
DraftKings +4.5 -115 −4.5 -105
ESPN BET +4.5 -115 −4.5 -105
FanDuel +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet +4.5 -115 −4.5 -105
Caesars +4 -110 −4 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 230.5 -110 230.5 -110
BetRivers 230.5 -114 230.5 -107
DraftKings 231.5 -105 231.5 -115
ESPN BET 230.5 -115 230.5 -105
FanDuel 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 230.5 -110 230.5 -110
Caesars 230.5 -110 230.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Brooklyn NetsIndiana Pacers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.1% 60.9%
Best book price incl. vig 40.0% 61.5%
Kalshi contract price 38.8% 61.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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