Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers

All Toronto Raptors predictions · All Los Angeles Lakers predictions

NBA · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 9:10 PM

The model's call
Los Angeles Lakers to win
Model confidence 62.4%
Books consensus 62.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Toronto RaptorsLos Angeles Lakers
BetMGM +154 -190
DraftKings +150 -180
ESPN BET +150 -175
Hard Rock Bet +160 -190
Novig +163 -170
Caesars +158 -190

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Lakers −4.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 5 books
Total
O/U 227.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books
Spread by book RaptorsLakers
BetMGM +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
DraftKings +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
ESPN BET +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
Caesars +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
DraftKings 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
ESPN BET 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
Caesars 227.5 -110 227.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Toronto RaptorsLos Angeles Lakers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.6% 62.4%
Best book price incl. vig 38.0% 63.0%
Kalshi contract price 36.5% 63.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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