Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins

All Vegas Golden Knights predictions · All Boston Bruins predictions

NHL · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Vegas Golden KnightsBoston Bruins
BetRivers -115 -103
DraftKings -112 -108
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -118 -102
Novig -104 -102
Caesars -110 -108

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Golden Knights −1.5
priced 31.5% to cover · 6 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 46.8% over · 5 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book Golden KnightsBruins
BetRivers −1.5 +205 +1.5 -265
DraftKings −1.5 +205 +1.5 -250
ESPN BET −1.5 +190 +1.5 -265
Fanatics −1.5 +210 +1.5 -270
FanDuel −1.5 +198 +1.5 -250
Caesars −1.5 +205 +1.5 -250
Total by bookOverUnder
BetRivers 6.5 +102 6.5 -127
DraftKings 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
ESPN BET 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
Fanatics 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
FanDuel 6.5 +108 6.5 -132
Caesars 6 -120 6 -103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Vegas Golden KnightsBoston Bruins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.1% 48.9%
Best book price incl. vig 51.0% 50.0%
Kalshi contract price 50.5% 49.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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