Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers

All Oklahoma City Thunder predictions · All Cleveland Cavaliers predictions

NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Cleveland Cavaliers to win
Model confidence 61.2%
Books consensus 61.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Oklahoma City ThunderCleveland Cavaliers
BetRivers +143 -175
DraftKings +150 -180
ESPN BET +150 -175
FanDuel +146 -174
Hard Rock Bet +145 -175
Novig +156 -163
Caesars +148 -175

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Cavaliers −3.5
priced 51.5% to cover · 3 books, 3 on another number
Total
O/U 227.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books
Spread by book ThunderCavaliers
BetRivers +3.5 -105 −3.5 -117
DraftKings +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
ESPN BET +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
FanDuel +3.5 -104 −3.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet +3.5 +100 −3.5 -115
Caesars +4 -110 −4 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetRivers 227.5 -106 227.5 -115
DraftKings 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
ESPN BET 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
FanDuel 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
Caesars 227.5 -110 227.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Oklahoma City ThunderCleveland Cavaliers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 38.8% 61.2%
Best book price incl. vig 39.1% 62.0%
Kalshi contract price 38.7% 61.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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