Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic

All Washington Wizards predictions · All Orlando Magic predictions

NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 7:40 PM

The model's call
Orlando Magic to win
Model confidence 52.3%
Books consensus 52.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Washington WizardsOrlando Magic
BetRivers +100 -122
DraftKings +100 -120
ESPN BET +100 -120
FanDuel +102 -120
Novig +113 -115
Caesars +100 -120

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Magic −1.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 4 books, 1 on another number
Total
O/U 224.5
priced 50.0% over · 3 books, 2 on another number
opened 226.5
Spread by book WizardsMagic
BetRivers +0.5 +100 −0.5 -122
DraftKings +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
ESPN BET +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
FanDuel +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Caesars +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetRivers 226.5 +106 226.5 -129
DraftKings 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
ESPN BET 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
FanDuel 224.5 -115 224.5 -105
Caesars 225 -110 225 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Washington WizardsOrlando Magic
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.7% 52.3%
Best book price incl. vig 46.9% 53.5%
Kalshi contract price 47.0% 53.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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