Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs

All Utah Jazz predictions · All San Antonio Spurs predictions

NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 8:40 PM

The model's call
San Antonio Spurs to win
Model confidence 88.0%
Books consensus 88.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Utah JazzSan Antonio Spurs
DraftKings +550 -800
ESPN BET +550 -900
FanDuel +810 -1350
Novig +900 -953
Caesars +700 -1100

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Spurs −15.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 2 books, 2 on another number
Total
O/U 229.5
priced 51.1% over · 1 book, 3 on another number
opened 231.5
Spread by book JazzSpurs
DraftKings +15.5 -105 −15.5 -115
ESPN BET +15.5 -105 −15.5 -115
FanDuel +16.5 -115 −16.5 -105
Caesars +16 -110 −16 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
DraftKings 229.5 -115 229.5 -105
ESPN BET 230.5 -105 230.5 -115
FanDuel 231.5 -105 231.5 -115
Caesars 231 -110 231 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Utah JazzSan Antonio Spurs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 12.0% 88.0%
Best book price incl. vig 10.0% 88.9%
Kalshi contract price 9.6% 90.4%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record