Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets

All Portland Trail Blazers predictions · All Denver Nuggets predictions

NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 9:10 PM

The model's call
Denver Nuggets to win
Model confidence 60.7%
Books consensus 60.7%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Portland Trail BlazersDenver Nuggets
BetRivers +143 -175
DraftKings +142 -170
ESPN BET +140 -165
FanDuel +140 -166
Hard Rock Bet +145 -170
Novig +156 -160
Caesars +148 -175

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Nuggets −4.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 3 books, 3 on another number
Total
O/U 229.5
priced 50.0% over · 4 books, 2 on another number
opened 231.5
Spread by book Trail BlazersNuggets
BetRivers +3.5 -106 −3.5 -115
DraftKings +4.5 -115 −4.5 -105
ESPN BET +4.5 -115 −4.5 -105
FanDuel +4.5 -115 −4.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
Caesars +4 -110 −4 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetRivers 230.5 +105 230.5 -129
DraftKings 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
ESPN BET 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
FanDuel 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
Caesars 230 -115 230 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Portland Trail BlazersDenver Nuggets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.3% 60.7%
Best book price incl. vig 39.1% 61.5%
Kalshi contract price 39.9% 60.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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