Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies

All New Orleans Pelicans predictions · All Memphis Grizzlies predictions

NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 8:10 PM

The model's call
Memphis Grizzlies to win
Model confidence 66.4%
Books consensus 66.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book New Orleans PelicansMemphis Grizzlies
BetRivers +185 -230
DraftKings +185 -225
ESPN BET +180 -215
FanDuel +180 -215
Hard Rock Bet +185 -230
Novig +199 -203
Caesars +185 -225

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Grizzlies −6.5
priced 49.5% to cover · 4 books, 2 on another number
Total
O/U 235.5
priced 50.0% over · 4 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book PelicansGrizzlies
BetRivers +6.5 -117 −6.5 -105
DraftKings +6.5 -110 −6.5 -110
ESPN BET +6.5 -110 −6.5 -110
FanDuel +5.5 -104 −5.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet +6.5 -115 −6.5 -105
Caesars +6 -110 −6 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetRivers 236.5 -106 236.5 -115
DraftKings 235.5 -110 235.5 -110
ESPN BET 235.5 -110 235.5 -110
FanDuel 235.5 -115 235.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 235.5 -110 235.5 -110
Caesars 236.5 -105 236.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue New Orleans PelicansMemphis Grizzlies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 33.6% 66.4%
Best book price incl. vig 33.4% 67.0%
Kalshi contract price 34.5% 65.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record