Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves

All Milwaukee Bucks predictions · All Minnesota Timberwolves predictions

NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 8:10 PM

The model's call
Minnesota Timberwolves to win
Model confidence 78.0%
Books consensus 78.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Milwaukee BucksMinnesota Timberwolves
BetRivers +335 -455
DraftKings +295 -375
ESPN BET +290 -380
FanDuel +360 -460
Novig +376 -413
Caesars +335 -440

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Timberwolves −10.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 3 books, 2 on another number
opened Timberwolves −11.5
Total
O/U 233.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books
Spread by book BucksTimberwolves
BetRivers +10.5 -110 −10.5 -110
DraftKings +11.5 -115 −11.5 -105
ESPN BET +11.5 -115 −11.5 -105
FanDuel +10.5 -105 −10.5 -115
Caesars +10.5 -110 −10.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetRivers 233.5 -106 233.5 -115
DraftKings 233.5 -110 233.5 -110
ESPN BET 233.5 -110 233.5 -110
FanDuel 233.5 -105 233.5 -115
Caesars 233.5 -110 233.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Milwaukee BucksMinnesota Timberwolves
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 22.0% 78.0%
Best book price incl. vig 21.0% 78.9%
Kalshi contract price 21.7% 78.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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