Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks

All Sacramento Kings predictions · All Dallas Mavericks predictions

NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 8:10 PM

The model's call
Dallas Mavericks to win
Model confidence 76.6%
Books consensus 76.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Sacramento KingsDallas Mavericks
BetMGM +310 -400
BetRivers +310 -420
DraftKings +310 -395
ESPN BET +300 -400
Fanatics +310 -400
FanDuel +310 -390
Hard Rock Bet +300 -400
Novig +344 -376
Caesars +310 -400

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Mavericks −9.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Total
O/U 234.5
priced 50.0% over · 8 books
Spread by book KingsMavericks
BetMGM +9.5 -105 −9.5 -115
BetRivers +9.5 -105 −9.5 -117
DraftKings +9.5 -110 −9.5 -110
ESPN BET +9.5 -110 −9.5 -110
Fanatics +9.5 -105 −9.5 -115
FanDuel +9.5 -106 −9.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet +9.5 -105 −9.5 -115
Caesars +10 -110 −10 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
BetRivers 234.5 -106 234.5 -115
DraftKings 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
ESPN BET 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
Fanatics 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
FanDuel 234.5 -115 234.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 234.5 -115 234.5 -105
Caesars 234.5 -110 234.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Sacramento KingsDallas Mavericks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 23.4% 76.6%
Best book price incl. vig 22.5% 79.0%
Kalshi contract price 21.1% 78.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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