Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors

All Phoenix Suns predictions · All Golden State Warriors predictions

NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 10:10 PM

The model's call
Golden State Warriors to win
Model confidence 61.6%
Books consensus 61.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Phoenix SunsGolden State Warriors
BetMGM +150 -185
BetRivers +150 -190
DraftKings +150 -180
Fanatics +150 -180
FanDuel +148 -176
Novig +150 -163
Caesars +152 -180

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Warriors −4.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 6 books
Total
O/U 227.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book SunsWarriors
BetMGM +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
BetRivers +4.5 -109 −4.5 -113
DraftKings +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
Fanatics +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
FanDuel +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
Caesars +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 228.5 -105 228.5 -115
BetRivers 227.5 -108 227.5 -113
DraftKings 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
Fanatics 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
FanDuel 227.5 -115 227.5 -105
Caesars 227.5 -110 227.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Phoenix SunsGolden State Warriors
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 38.4% 61.6%
Best book price incl. vig 39.7% 62.0%
Kalshi contract price 38.3% 61.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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