Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers

All Atlanta Hawks predictions · All Indiana Pacers predictions

NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 7:40 PM

The model's call
Atlanta Hawks to win
Model confidence 63.0%
Books consensus 63.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Atlanta HawksIndiana Pacers
DraftKings -205 +170
FanDuel -184 +154
Novig -178 +167
Caesars -190 +158

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Hawks −5.5
priced 49.5% to cover · 2 books, 1 on another number
Total
O/U 233.5
priced 50.0% over · 2 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book HawksPacers
DraftKings −5.5 -110 +5.5 -110
FanDuel −4.5 -114 +4.5 -106
Caesars −5.5 -105 +5.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
DraftKings 233.5 -110 233.5 -110
FanDuel 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
Caesars 233.5 -110 233.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Atlanta HawksIndiana Pacers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 63.0% 37.0%
Best book price incl. vig 64.0% 37.0%
Kalshi contract price 64.1% 35.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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