Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Clippers

All Toronto Raptors predictions · All Los Angeles Clippers predictions

NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 10:10 PM

The model's call
Toronto Raptors to win
Model confidence 63.9%
Books consensus 63.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Toronto RaptorsLos Angeles Clippers
BetMGM -210 +170
BetRivers -200 +163
DraftKings -205 +170
ESPN BET -200 +170
Fanatics -200 +165
FanDuel -186 +156
Hard Rock Bet -195 +160
Novig -194 +186
Caesars -195 +162

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Raptors −4.5
priced 51.4% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened Raptors −5.5
Total
O/U 221.5
priced 49.2% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Spread by book RaptorsClippers
BetMGM −4.5 -118 +4.5 -102
BetRivers −5.5 -108 +5.5 -113
DraftKings −5.5 -102 +5.5 -118
ESPN BET −4.5 -115 +4.5 -105
Fanatics −5 -110 +5 -110
FanDuel −4.5 -115 +4.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet −4.5 -115 +4.5 +100
Caesars −5 -110 +5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 221.5 -105 221.5 -115
BetRivers 220.5 -114 220.5 -107
DraftKings 221.5 -108 221.5 -112
ESPN BET 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
Fanatics 221 -110 221 -110
FanDuel 220.5 -110 220.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 220.5 -115 220.5 -105
Caesars 221.5 -105 221.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Toronto RaptorsLos Angeles Clippers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 63.9% 36.1%
Best book price incl. vig 65.0% 35.0%
Kalshi contract price 64.8% 35.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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