Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers

All Minnesota Wild predictions · All Philadelphia Flyers predictions

NHL · Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Minnesota Wild to win
Model confidence 60.4%
Books consensus 60.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Minnesota WildPhiladelphia Flyers
BetMGM -170 +140
BetRivers -175 +143
DraftKings -170 +142
Fanatics -170 +140
FanDuel -166 +138
Novig -170 +156
Caesars -173 +145

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Wild −1.5
priced 39.7% to cover · 6 books
Total
O/U 5.5
priced 52.9% over · 5 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book WildFlyers
BetMGM −1.5 +140 +1.5 -170
BetRivers −1.5 +150 +1.5 -190
DraftKings −1.5 +140 +1.5 -166
Fanatics −1.5 +140 +1.5 -170
FanDuel −1.5 +142 +1.5 -176
Caesars −1.5 +143 +1.5 -170
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 +100 6 -120
BetRivers 5.5 -124 5.5 +100
DraftKings 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
Fanatics 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
FanDuel 5.5 -118 5.5 -104
Caesars 5.5 -125 5.5 +102

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Minnesota WildPhiladelphia Flyers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 60.4% 39.6%
Best book price incl. vig 62.4% 39.1%
Kalshi contract price 61.7% 38.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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