Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Winnipeg Jets at Montréal Canadiens

All Winnipeg Jets predictions · All Montréal Canadiens predictions

NHL · Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Montréal Canadiens to win
Model confidence 62.4%
Books consensus 62.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Winnipeg JetsMontréal Canadiens
BetMGM +154 -190
BetRivers +155 -186
DraftKings +150 -180
Fanatics +150 -180
FanDuel +155 -188
Novig +163 -174
Caesars +151 -179

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Canadiens −1.5
priced 41.0% to cover · 6 books
Total
O/U 5.5
priced 55.4% over · 3 books, 3 on another number
Spread by book JetsCanadiens
BetMGM +1.5 -155 −1.5 +125
BetRivers +1.5 -175 −1.5 +138
DraftKings +1.5 -166 −1.5 +140
Fanatics +1.5 -160 −1.5 +130
FanDuel +1.5 -154 −1.5 +126
Caesars +1.5 -162 −1.5 +136
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -110 6 -110
BetRivers 5.5 -141 5.5 +112
DraftKings 5.5 -130 5.5 +110
Fanatics 5.5 -140 5.5 +115
FanDuel 6.5 +110 6.5 -134
Caesars 6 -110 6 -112

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Winnipeg JetsMontréal Canadiens
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.6% 62.4%
Best book price incl. vig 38.0% 63.5%
Kalshi contract price 37.5% 62.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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