Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins

All Vegas Golden Knights predictions · All Pittsburgh Penguins predictions

NHL · Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Model confidence 50.1%
Books consensus 50.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Vegas Golden KnightsPittsburgh Penguins
BetMGM -110 -110
BetRivers -109 -108
DraftKings -112 -108
Fanatics -110 -110
FanDuel -110 -110
Caesars -112 -106

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Penguins −1.5
priced 31.2% to cover · 6 books
opened Golden Knights −1.5
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 53.2% over · 6 books
Spread by book Golden KnightsPenguins
BetMGM +1.5 -250 −1.5 +200
BetRivers +1.5 -286 −1.5 +220
DraftKings +1.5 -265 −1.5 +215
Fanatics +1.5 -255 −1.5 +200
FanDuel +1.5 -250 −1.5 +198
Caesars +1.5 -265 −1.5 +210
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
BetRivers 6.5 -127 6.5 +102
DraftKings 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
Fanatics 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
FanDuel 6.5 -128 6.5 +104
Caesars 6.5 -127 6.5 +103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Vegas Golden KnightsPittsburgh Penguins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 50.1% 49.9%
Best book price incl. vig 52.2% 51.5%
Kalshi contract price 48.5% 51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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