Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Edmonton Oilers at New Jersey Devils

All Edmonton Oilers predictions · All New Jersey Devils predictions

NHL · Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 7:40 PM

The model's call
New Jersey Devils to win
Model confidence 58.3%
Books consensus 58.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Edmonton OilersNew Jersey Devils
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +128 -152
DraftKings +130 -155
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +128 -154
Novig +138 -150
Caesars +131 -154

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Devils −1.5
priced 38.2% to cover · 6 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 46.8% over · 5 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book OilersDevils
BetMGM +1.5 -190 −1.5 +155
BetRivers +1.5 -210 −1.5 +165
DraftKings +1.5 -180 −1.5 +150
Fanatics +1.5 -180 −1.5 +145
FanDuel +1.5 -176 −1.5 +142
Caesars +1.5 -182 −1.5 +152
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -118 6 -102
BetRivers 6.5 +102 6.5 -125
DraftKings 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
Fanatics 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
FanDuel 6.5 +102 6.5 -124
Caesars 6.5 +104 6.5 -127

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Edmonton OilersNew Jersey Devils
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 41.7% 58.3%
Best book price incl. vig 42.0% 60.0%
Kalshi contract price 41.1% 58.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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