Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons

All Philadelphia 76ers predictions · All Detroit Pistons predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Detroit Pistons to win
Model confidence 53.2%
Books consensus 53.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Philadelphia 76ersDetroit Pistons
BetMGM +105 -125
BetRivers +108 -132
DraftKings +106 -125
ESPN BET +105 -125
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +102 -120
Hard Rock Bet +105 -125
Novig -115 -115
Caesars +105 -125

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Pistons −1.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Total
O/U 218.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book 76ersPistons
BetMGM +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
BetRivers +1.5 -105 −1.5 -117
DraftKings +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
ESPN BET +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
Fanatics +2 -110 −2 -110
FanDuel +1.5 -106 −1.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
Caesars +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 218.5 -110 218.5 -110
BetRivers 218.5 -112 218.5 -109
DraftKings 218.5 -110 218.5 -110
ESPN BET 217.5 -115 217.5 -105
Fanatics 218.5 -110 218.5 -110
FanDuel 218.5 -110 218.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 218.5 -110 218.5 -110
Caesars 218.5 -110 218.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Philadelphia 76ersDetroit Pistons
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.8% 53.2%
Best book price incl. vig 48.1% 53.5%
Kalshi contract price 50.5% 49.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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