Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs

All Dallas Mavericks predictions · All San Antonio Spurs predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 9:40 PM

The model's call
San Antonio Spurs to win
Model confidence 83.4%
Books consensus 83.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Dallas MavericksSan Antonio Spurs
BetMGM +475 -650
BetRivers +475 -715
DraftKings +474 -650
ESPN BET +475 -750
Fanatics +500 -700
FanDuel +480 -650
Hard Rock Bet +475 -650
Caesars +460 -650

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Spurs −12.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Total
O/U 229.5
priced 50.0% over · 8 books
Spread by book MavericksSpurs
BetMGM +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
BetRivers +11.5 +105 −11.5 -127
DraftKings +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
ESPN BET +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
Fanatics +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
FanDuel +12.5 -108 −12.5 -112
Hard Rock Bet +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
Caesars +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
BetRivers 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
DraftKings 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
ESPN BET 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
Fanatics 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
FanDuel 229.5 -106 229.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
Caesars 229.5 -110 229.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Dallas MavericksSan Antonio Spurs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 16.6% 83.4%
Best book price incl. vig 16.7% 86.7%
Kalshi contract price 16.4% 83.6%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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