Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

All Ottawa Senators predictions · All Buffalo Sabres predictions

NHL · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 7:40 PM

The model's call
Buffalo Sabres to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Ottawa SenatorsBuffalo Sabres
BetMGM +110 -135
BetRivers +107 -125
DraftKings +110 -130
ESPN BET +105 -125
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +105 -126
Hard Rock Bet +110 -130
Novig +120 -125
Caesars +112 -132

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Sabres −1.5
priced 34.1% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 52.2% over · 8 books
Spread by book SenatorsSabres
BetMGM +1.5 -210 −1.5 +170
BetRivers +1.5 -250 −1.5 +195
DraftKings +1.5 -218 −1.5 +180
ESPN BET +1.5 -250 −1.5 +185
Fanatics +1.5 -225 −1.5 +180
FanDuel +1.5 -225 −1.5 +180
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -230 −1.5 +175
Caesars +1.5 -209 −1.5 +175
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
BetRivers 6.5 -112 6.5 -112
DraftKings 6.5 -122 6.5 +102
ESPN BET 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
Fanatics 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
FanDuel 6.5 -122 6.5 +100
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
Caesars 6.5 -124 6.5 +101

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Ottawa SenatorsBuffalo Sabres
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 45.7% 54.3%
Best book price incl. vig 45.5% 55.6%
Kalshi contract price 44.5% 55.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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