Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken

All Calgary Flames predictions · All Seattle Kraken predictions

NHL · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 10:10 PM

The model's call
Seattle Kraken to win
Model confidence 56.2%
Books consensus 56.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Calgary FlamesSeattle Kraken
BetMGM +115 -140
BetRivers +120 -143
DraftKings +120 -142
ESPN BET +115 -135
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +108 -130
Hard Rock Bet +120 -140
Novig +127 -133
Caesars +118 -138

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Kraken −1.5
priced 35.1% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 46.5% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book FlamesKraken
BetMGM +1.5 -210 −1.5 +170
BetRivers +1.5 -220 −1.5 +170
DraftKings +1.5 -205 −1.5 +170
ESPN BET +1.5 -235 −1.5 +180
Fanatics +1.5 -215 −1.5 +170
FanDuel +1.5 -220 −1.5 +176
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -210 −1.5 +160
Caesars +1.5 -210 −1.5 +175
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -120 6 +100
BetRivers 6.5 +102 6.5 -125
DraftKings 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
ESPN BET 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
Fanatics 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
FanDuel 6.5 +114 6.5 -140
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +105 6.5 -130
Caesars 6 -121 6 -102

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Calgary FlamesSeattle Kraken
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.8% 56.2%
Best book price incl. vig 44.1% 56.5%
Kalshi contract price 43.3% 56.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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