Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings

All San Jose Sharks predictions · All Los Angeles Kings predictions

NHL · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 10:10 PM

The model's call
Los Angeles Kings to win
Model confidence 58.3%
Books consensus 58.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book San Jose SharksLos Angeles Kings
BetMGM +135 -160
BetRivers +123 -148
DraftKings +130 -155
ESPN BET +140 -165
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +128 -154
Hard Rock Bet +130 -150
Novig +144 -150
Caesars +133 -157

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Kings −1.5
priced 38.4% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 46.4% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book SharksKings
BetMGM +1.5 -175 −1.5 +145
BetRivers +1.5 -205 −1.5 +163
DraftKings +1.5 -180 −1.5 +150
ESPN BET +1.5 -180 −1.5 +150
Fanatics +1.5 -185 −1.5 +150
FanDuel +1.5 -180 −1.5 +146
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -185 −1.5 +140
Caesars +1.5 -182 −1.5 +152
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -118 6 -102
BetRivers 6.5 +104 6.5 -129
DraftKings 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
ESPN BET 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
Fanatics 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
FanDuel 6.5 +114 6.5 -140
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +105 6.5 -130
Caesars 6 -121 6 -103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue San Jose SharksLos Angeles Kings
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 41.7% 58.3%
Best book price incl. vig 41.0% 59.7%
Kalshi contract price 41.5% 58.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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