Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics

All Milwaukee Bucks predictions · All Boston Celtics predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 7:40 PM

The model's call
Boston Celtics to win
Model confidence 87.2%
Books consensus 87.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Milwaukee BucksBoston Celtics
BetMGM +675 -1100
BetRivers +575 -910
DraftKings +660 -1000
ESPN BET +750 -1400
Fanatics +640 -975
Novig +567 -809

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Celtics −14.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 3 books, 2 on another number
Total
O/U 225.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books
Spread by book BucksCeltics
BetMGM +15.5 -110 −15.5 -110
BetRivers +14.5 -110 −14.5 -110
DraftKings +14.5 -104 −14.5 -116
ESPN BET +14.5 -105 −14.5 -115
Fanatics +15 -110 −15 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 225.5 -115 225.5 -105
BetRivers 225.5 -113 225.5 -108
DraftKings 225.5 -110 225.5 -110
ESPN BET 225.5 -110 225.5 -110
Fanatics 225.5 -110 225.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Milwaukee BucksBoston Celtics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 12.8% 87.2%
Best book price incl. vig 11.8% 89.0%
Kalshi contract price 11.9% 88.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record