Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks

All Chicago Bulls predictions · All New York Knicks predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 7:40 PM

The model's call
New York Knicks to win
Model confidence 83.0%
Books consensus 83.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Chicago BullsNew York Knicks
BetMGM +475 -650
BetRivers +450 -670
DraftKings +466 -640
ESPN BET +475 -750
Fanatics +460 -650
Novig +335 -545

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Knicks −12.5
priced 49.5% to cover · 5 books
Total
O/U 232.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books
Spread by book BullsKnicks
BetMGM +12.5 -115 −12.5 -105
BetRivers +12.5 -113 −12.5 -108
DraftKings +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
ESPN BET +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
Fanatics +12.5 -115 −12.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
BetRivers 232.5 -114 232.5 -107
DraftKings 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
ESPN BET 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
Fanatics 232.5 -110 232.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Chicago BullsNew York Knicks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 17.0% 83.0%
Best book price incl. vig 17.4% 84.5%
Kalshi contract price 17.9% 82.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record