Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets

All Toronto Raptors predictions · All Denver Nuggets predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 9:00 PM

The model's call
Denver Nuggets to win
Model confidence 65.8%
Books consensus 65.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Toronto RaptorsDenver Nuggets
BetMGM +180 -220
BetRivers +170 -215
Fanatics +180 -220

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Nuggets −5.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 3 books
Total
O/U 231.5
priced 50.0% over · 3 books
Spread by book RaptorsNuggets
BetMGM +5.5 -110 −5.5 -110
BetRivers +5.5 -114 −5.5 -107
Fanatics +5.5 -110 −5.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
BetRivers 231.5 -109 231.5 -112
Fanatics 231.5 -110 231.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Toronto RaptorsDenver Nuggets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 34.2% 65.8%
Best book price incl. vig 35.7% 68.3%
Kalshi contract price 35.5% 64.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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