Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns

All Portland Trail Blazers predictions · All Phoenix Suns predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 9:00 PM

The model's call
Portland Trail Blazers to win
Model confidence 56.8%
Books consensus 56.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Portland Trail BlazersPhoenix Suns
BetMGM -150 +125
BetRivers -148 +120
Fanatics -140 +120

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Trail Blazers −2.5
priced 50.3% to cover · 3 books
Total
O/U 228.5
priced 50.0% over · 3 books
Spread by book Trail BlazersSuns
BetMGM −2.5 -115 +2.5 -105
BetRivers −2.5 -112 +2.5 -109
Fanatics −2.5 -110 +2.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
BetRivers 228.5 -109 228.5 -112
Fanatics 228.5 -110 228.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Portland Trail BlazersPhoenix Suns
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 56.8% 43.2%
Best book price incl. vig 58.3% 44.4%
Kalshi contract price 60.5% 39.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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