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Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

MLB · Tuesday, July 21, 2026 · 7:11 PM

The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 56.0%
Books consensus 56.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Baltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox
BetMGM +120 -145
BetRivers +120 -141
DraftKings +118 -142
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +116 -136
Hard Rock Bet +115 -140
Caesars +118 -140

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Baltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.0% 56.0%
Best book price incl. vig 44.4% 57.6%
Kalshi contract price 43.5% 56.5%
Polymarket contract price 43.5% 56.5%
Markets average 43.5% 56.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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