Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards

All Atlanta Hawks predictions · All Washington Wizards predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Atlanta Hawks to win
Model confidence 55.3%
Books consensus 55.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Atlanta HawksWashington Wizards
BetMGM -140 +115
BetRivers -125 +102
DraftKings -136 +115
ESPN BET -135 +115
Fanatics -140 +115
FanDuel -138 +118
Hard Rock Bet -135 +110
Novig -127 +125
Caesars -135 +115

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Hawks −2.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened Hawks −1.5
Total
O/U 232.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 233.5
Spread by book HawksWizards
BetMGM −2.5 -105 +2.5 -115
BetRivers −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
DraftKings −2.5 -104 +2.5 -117
ESPN BET −2.5 +100 +2.5 -120
Fanatics −2 -110 +2 -110
FanDuel −2.5 -105 +2.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet −2.5 -105 +2.5 -115
Caesars −2 -115 +2 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
BetRivers 234.5 +110 234.5 -134
DraftKings 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
ESPN BET 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
Fanatics 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
FanDuel 232.5 -115 232.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
Caesars 232.5 -110 232.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Atlanta HawksWashington Wizards
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 55.3% 44.7%
Best book price incl. vig 55.6% 44.4%
Kalshi contract price 55.8% 44.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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