Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans

All Utah Jazz predictions · All New Orleans Pelicans predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 8:10 PM

The model's call
New Orleans Pelicans to win
Model confidence 64.7%
Books consensus 64.7%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Utah JazzNew Orleans Pelicans
BetMGM +170 -210
BetRivers +163 -200
DraftKings +172 -207
ESPN BET +170 -200
Fanatics +175 -215
FanDuel +172 -205
Novig +194 -208
Caesars +175 -210

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Pelicans −5.5
priced 49.6% to cover · 6 books, 1 on another number
Total
O/U 235.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books
Spread by book JazzPelicans
BetMGM +5.5 -110 −5.5 -110
BetRivers +4.5 -104 −4.5 -118
DraftKings +5.5 -114 −5.5 -106
ESPN BET +5.5 -115 −5.5 -105
Fanatics +5.5 -110 −5.5 -110
FanDuel +5.5 -115 −5.5 -105
Caesars +5.5 -110 −5.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 235.5 -110 235.5 -110
BetRivers 235.5 -110 235.5 -110
DraftKings 235.5 -106 235.5 -114
ESPN BET 235.5 -105 235.5 -115
Fanatics 235.5 -110 235.5 -110
FanDuel 235.5 -110 235.5 -110
Caesars 235.5 -110 235.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Utah JazzNew Orleans Pelicans
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 35.3% 64.7%
Best book price incl. vig 34.0% 66.7%
Kalshi contract price 33.0% 67.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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