Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings

All Los Angeles Lakers predictions · All Sacramento Kings predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 10:10 PM

The model's call
Los Angeles Lakers to win
Model confidence 81.1%
Books consensus 81.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Los Angeles LakersSacramento Kings
BetMGM -550 +400
BetRivers -530 +380
DraftKings -546 +411
ESPN BET -600 +400
Fanatics -575 +420
FanDuel -500 +385
Hard Rock Bet -600 +425
Novig -488 +456
Caesars -550 +400

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Lakers −11.5
priced 49.8% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 237.5
priced 50.0% over · 8 books
Spread by book LakersKings
BetMGM −11.5 -110 +11.5 -110
BetRivers −11.5 -108 +11.5 -113
DraftKings −11.5 -108 +11.5 -112
ESPN BET −11.5 -110 +11.5 -110
Fanatics −11.5 -110 +11.5 -110
FanDuel −11.5 -106 +11.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet −11.5 -105 +11.5 -115
Caesars −11.5 -110 +11.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
BetRivers 237.5 -108 237.5 -113
DraftKings 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
ESPN BET 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
Fanatics 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
FanDuel 237.5 -105 237.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
Caesars 237.5 -110 237.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Los Angeles LakersSacramento Kings
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 81.1% 18.9%
Best book price incl. vig 83.0% 18.0%
Kalshi contract price 82.6% 17.4%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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