Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies

All Indiana Pacers predictions · All Memphis Grizzlies predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 8:10 PM

The model's call
Memphis Grizzlies to win
Model confidence 69.0%
Books consensus 69.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Indiana PacersMemphis Grizzlies
BetMGM +225 -285
BetRivers +195 -245
DraftKings +212 -258
ESPN BET +210 -250
Fanatics +200 -245
FanDuel +205 -255
Novig +228 -233
Caesars +210 -260

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Grizzlies −6.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 6 books, 1 on another number
Total
O/U 230.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book PacersGrizzlies
BetMGM +6.5 -110 −6.5 -110
BetRivers +6.5 -113 −6.5 -109
DraftKings +6.5 -110 −6.5 -110
ESPN BET +6.5 -110 −6.5 -110
Fanatics +6.5 -110 −6.5 -110
FanDuel +5.5 -104 −5.5 -118
Caesars +6.5 -110 −6.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 230.5 -110 230.5 -110
BetRivers 230.5 -108 230.5 -113
DraftKings 230.5 -110 230.5 -110
ESPN BET 230.5 -110 230.5 -110
Fanatics 230 -110 230 -110
FanDuel 230.5 -110 230.5 -110
Caesars 230.5 -110 230.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Indiana PacersMemphis Grizzlies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 31.0% 69.0%
Best book price incl. vig 30.5% 70.0%
Kalshi contract price 29.8% 70.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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