Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins

All Boston Bruins predictions · All Pittsburgh Penguins predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Pittsburgh Penguins to win
Model confidence 50.1%
Books consensus 50.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Boston BruinsPittsburgh Penguins
DraftKings -108 -112
Fanatics -110 -110
Novig -115 -104
Caesars -108 -109

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Penguins −1.5
priced 30.9% to cover · 1 book, 1 on another number
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 49.2% over · 3 books
Spread by book BruinsPenguins
DraftKings +1.5 -258 −1.5 +210
Fanatics −1.5 +210 +1.5 -270
Total by bookOverUnder
DraftKings 6.5 -108 6.5 -112
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 -107 6.5 -114

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Boston BruinsPittsburgh Penguins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 49.9% 50.1%
Best book price incl. vig 51.9% 51.0%
Kalshi contract price 51.5% 48.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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