Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings

All Vegas Golden Knights predictions · All Detroit Red Wings predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Model confidence 56.3%
Books consensus 56.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Vegas Golden KnightsDetroit Red Wings
DraftKings -142 +120
Fanatics -145 +120
Novig -147 +113
Caesars -141 +120

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Golden Knights −1.5
priced 35.5% to cover · 3 books
Total
O/U 5.5
priced 55.1% over · 2 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book Golden KnightsRed Wings
DraftKings −1.5 +170 +1.5 -205
Fanatics −1.5 +165 +1.5 -205
Caesars −1.5 +170 +1.5 -205
Total by bookOverUnder
DraftKings 5.5 -135 5.5 +114
Fanatics 6.5 +115 6.5 -140
Caesars 5.5 -137 5.5 +112

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Vegas Golden KnightsDetroit Red Wings
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 56.3% 43.7%
Best book price incl. vig 58.5% 45.5%
Kalshi contract price 56.4% 43.6%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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