Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers

MLB · Tuesday, July 21, 2026 · 8:06 PM

The model's call

Texas Rangers to win

Model confidence 54.0%

Books consensus 54.0%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Chicago White Sox	Texas Rangers
BetMGM	+110	-135
BetRivers	+110	-124
DraftKings	+109	-131
ESPN BET	+110	-130
Fanatics	+105	-125
FanDuel	+108	-126
Hard Rock Bet	+105	-125
Caesars	+110	-130

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Chicago White Sox	Texas Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	46.0%	54.0%
Best book price incl. vig	47.6%	55.4%
Kalshi contract price	46.5%	53.5%
Polymarket contract price	45.5%	54.5%
Markets average	46.0%	54.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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