Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Utah Mammoth at Montréal Canadiens

All Utah Mammoth predictions · All Montréal Canadiens predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Utah Mammoth to win
Model confidence 52.0%
Books consensus 52.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Utah MammothMontréal Canadiens
DraftKings -122 +102
Fanatics -120 +100
Novig -117 +100
Caesars -114 -104

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Mammoth −1.5
priced 32.5% to cover · 3 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 48.9% over · 3 books
Spread by book MammothCanadiens
DraftKings −1.5 +195 +1.5 -238
Fanatics −1.5 +190 +1.5 -240
Caesars −1.5 +200 +1.5 -245
Total by bookOverUnder
DraftKings 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 -107 6.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Utah MammothMontréal Canadiens
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.0% 48.0%
Best book price incl. vig 53.3% 49.5%
Kalshi contract price 52.3% 47.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record