Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

St Louis Blues at New Jersey Devils

All St Louis Blues predictions · All New Jersey Devils predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
New Jersey Devils to win
Model confidence 62.4%
Books consensus 62.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book St Louis BluesNew Jersey Devils
DraftKings +154 -185
Fanatics +155 -190
Novig +153 -186
Caesars +158 -190

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Devils −1.5
priced 42.7% to cover · 3 books
Total
O/U 5.5
priced 55.1% over · 3 books
Spread by book BluesDevils
DraftKings +1.5 -148 −1.5 +124
Fanatics +1.5 -150 −1.5 +125
Caesars +1.5 -148 −1.5 +125
Total by bookOverUnder
DraftKings 5.5 -135 5.5 +114
Fanatics 5.5 -135 5.5 +110
Caesars 5.5 -139 5.5 +113

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue St Louis BluesNew Jersey Devils
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.6% 62.4%
Best book price incl. vig 38.8% 64.9%
Kalshi contract price 37.0% 63.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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