Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers

All Philadelphia Flyers predictions · All New York Rangers predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
New York Rangers to win
Model confidence 58.3%
Books consensus 58.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Philadelphia FlyersNew York Rangers
DraftKings +130 -155
Fanatics +130 -155
Novig +133 -150
Caesars +131 -154

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Rangers −1.5
priced 38.1% to cover · 3 books
Total
O/U 5.5
priced 52.6% over · 3 books
Spread by book FlyersRangers
DraftKings +1.5 -185 −1.5 +154
Fanatics +1.5 -185 −1.5 +150
Caesars +1.5 -182 −1.5 +152
Total by bookOverUnder
DraftKings 5.5 -122 5.5 +102
Fanatics 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
Caesars 5.5 -120 5.5 -103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Philadelphia FlyersNew York Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 41.7% 58.3%
Best book price incl. vig 42.9% 60.0%
Kalshi contract price 41.0% 59.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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