Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers

All Anaheim Ducks predictions · All Edmonton Oilers predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 8:10 PM

The model's call
Edmonton Oilers to win
Model confidence 62.2%
Books consensus 62.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Anaheim DucksEdmonton Oilers
DraftKings +154 -185
Fanatics +150 -180
Novig +156 -178
Caesars +155 -190

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Oilers −1.5
priced 42.8% to cover · 3 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 56.6% over · 3 books
Spread by book DucksOilers
DraftKings +1.5 -148 −1.5 +124
Fanatics +1.5 -150 −1.5 +125
Caesars +1.5 -143 −1.5 +121
Total by bookOverUnder
DraftKings 6.5 -148 6.5 +124
Fanatics 6.5 -145 6.5 +120
Caesars 6.5 -145 6.5 +118

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Anaheim DucksEdmonton Oilers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.8% 62.2%
Best book price incl. vig 39.1% 64.0%
Kalshi contract price 36.8% 63.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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