Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche

All Nashville Predators predictions · All Colorado Avalanche predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 9:40 PM

The model's call
Colorado Avalanche to win
Model confidence 67.1%
Books consensus 67.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Nashville PredatorsColorado Avalanche
DraftKings +195 -238
Fanatics +190 -235
Novig +178 -212
Caesars +192 -235

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Avalanche −1.5
priced 47.8% to cover · 3 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 48.6% over · 3 books
Spread by book PredatorsAvalanche
DraftKings +1.5 -120 −1.5 +100
Fanatics +1.5 -120 −1.5 +100
Caesars +1.5 -118 −1.5 +101
Total by bookOverUnder
DraftKings 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 -105 6.5 -118

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Nashville PredatorsColorado Avalanche
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 32.9% 67.1%
Best book price incl. vig 33.9% 67.9%
Kalshi contract price 33.2% 66.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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