Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns

All Orlando Magic predictions · All Phoenix Suns predictions

NBA · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 9:10 PM

The model's call
Phoenix Suns to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Orlando MagicPhoenix Suns
BetMGM -102 -118
BetRivers -113 -108
DraftKings -104 -114
ESPN BET -105 -115
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel -104 -112
Hard Rock Bet -105 -115
Novig +102 -104
Caesars -110 -110

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Suns −1.5
priced 49.0% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
Total
O/U 223.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book MagicSuns
BetMGM +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
BetRivers −0.5 -113 +0.5 -108
DraftKings +1.5 -114 −1.5 -106
ESPN BET +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Fanatics +1 -110 −1 -110
FanDuel +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Caesars +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
BetRivers 223.5 -113 223.5 -108
DraftKings 223.5 -106 223.5 -114
ESPN BET 223.5 -105 223.5 -115
Fanatics 223 -110 223 -110
FanDuel 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
Caesars 223 -110 223 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Orlando MagicPhoenix Suns
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.9% 51.1%
Best book price incl. vig 49.5% 51.0%
Kalshi contract price 48.5% 51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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