Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames

All Anaheim Ducks predictions · All Calgary Flames predictions

NHL · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 8:12 PM · Final: 5-3

The model's call
Calgary Flames to win
Model confidence 56.1%
Books consensus 56.1%
Result Anaheim Ducks won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Anaheim DucksCalgary Flames
BetMGM +120 -145
BetRivers +117 -139
DraftKings +124 -148
ESPN BET +115 -135
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +118 -142
Hard Rock Bet +110 -140
Novig +125 -127
Caesars +123 -145

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Flames −1.5
priced 34.9% to cover · 8 books
Anaheim Ducks covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 52.1% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (8 scored)
Spread by book DucksFlames
BetMGM +1.5 -200 −1.5 +165
BetRivers +1.5 -215 −1.5 +170
DraftKings +1.5 -198 −1.5 +164
ESPN BET +1.5 -225 −1.5 +180
Fanatics +1.5 -220 −1.5 +175
FanDuel +1.5 -220 −1.5 +176
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -230 −1.5 +175
Caesars +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
BetRivers 6.5 -122 6.5 +100
DraftKings 6.5 -118 6.5 -102
ESPN BET 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
Fanatics 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
FanDuel 6.5 -124 6.5 +102
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
Caesars 6.5 -121 6.5 -102

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Anaheim DucksCalgary Flames
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.9% 56.1%
Best book price incl. vig 44.4% 55.9%
Kalshi contract price 43.5% 56.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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