Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild

All San Jose Sharks predictions · All Minnesota Wild predictions

NHL · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 8:08 PM · Final: 1-4

The model's call
Minnesota Wild to win
Model confidence 71.0%
Books consensus 71.0%
Result Minnesota Wild won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Jose SharksMinnesota Wild
BetMGM +230 -285
BetRivers +240 -295
DraftKings +230 -285
ESPN BET +240 -290
Fanatics +230 -285
FanDuel +230 -285
Hard Rock Bet +220 -325
Novig +257 -270
Caesars +230 -290

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Wild −1.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 8 books
Minnesota Wild covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 50.5% over · 8 books
Under 6.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book SharksWild
BetMGM +1.5 -102 −1.5 -118
BetRivers +1.5 -108 −1.5 -115
DraftKings +1.5 -102 −1.5 -118
ESPN BET +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Fanatics +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
FanDuel +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Caesars +1.5 +105 −1.5 -125
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
BetRivers 6.5 -104 6.5 -121
DraftKings 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
ESPN BET 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Fanatics 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
FanDuel 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 -115 6.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Jose SharksMinnesota Wild
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 29.0% 71.0%
Best book price incl. vig 28.0% 73.0%
Kalshi contract price 28.9% 71.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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