UMass Minutemen at Toledo Rockets
All UMass Minutemen predictions · All Toledo Rockets predictions
College Football · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 7:48 PM · Final: 0-24
The model's call
Toledo Rockets to win
Model confidence 82.2%
Books consensus 82.2%
Result Toledo Rockets won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | UMass Minutemen | Toledo Rockets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +475 | -625 |
| BetRivers | +420 | -625 |
| DraftKings | +440 | -600 |
| ESPN BET | +450 | -700 |
| Fanatics | +440 | -600 |
| FanDuel | +470 | -650 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +425 | -650 |
| Novig | +488 | -506 |
| Caesars | +425 | -590 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
Toledo −14
priced 50.2% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened Toledo −14.5
Toledo Rockets covered −14
Total · closing
O/U 51.5
priced 50.4% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 52.5
Under 51.5 (24 scored)
| Spread by book | UMass | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +14 -108 | −14 -110 |
| BetRivers | +14 -113 | −14 -110 |
| DraftKings | +14 -105 | −14 -115 |
| ESPN BET | +14.5 -120 | −14.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | +14 -110 | −14 -110 |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -115 | −14.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -105 | −13.5 -120 |
| Caesars | +14 -106 | −14 -114 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 51.5 -115 | 51.5 -102 |
| BetRivers | 51.5 -113 | 51.5 -109 |
| DraftKings | 51.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 51.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 52 -110 | 52 -110 |
| FanDuel | 52.5 -105 | 52.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 51.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 52 -109 | 52 -110 |
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