San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals

MLB · Wednesday, July 22, 2026 · 2:11 PM

The model's call

San Francisco Giants to win

Model confidence 50.5%

Books consensus 50.5%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	San Francisco Giants	Kansas City Royals
DraftKings	-110	-110
ESPN BET	-115	-105
Fanatics	-110	-110
FanDuel	-116	-102
Hard Rock Bet	-115	-105
Caesars	-110	-110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	San Francisco Giants	Kansas City Royals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	50.5%	49.5%
Best book price incl. vig	52.4%	50.5%
Kalshi contract price	51.5%	48.5%
Polymarket contract price	51.5%	48.5%
Markets average	51.5%	48.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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