Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings

All San Antonio Spurs predictions · All Sacramento Kings predictions

NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 10:24 PM · Final: 124-109

The model's call
San Antonio Spurs to win
Model confidence 89.5%
Books consensus 89.5%
Result San Antonio Spurs won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Antonio SpursSacramento Kings
BetMGM -1600 +900
BetRivers -1430 +750
DraftKings -1340 +810
ESPN BET -1600 +800
Fanatics -1300 +800
FanDuel -1500 +870
Hard Rock Bet -1600 +900
Novig -900 +852
Caesars -1600 +900

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Spurs −17.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Spurs −15.5
Sacramento Kings covered +17.5
Total · closing
O/U 231.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 228.5
Over 231.5 (233 scored)
Spread by book SpursKings
BetMGM −17.5 -110 +17.5 -110
BetRivers −17.5 -112 +17.5 -112
DraftKings −17.5 -110 +17.5 -110
ESPN BET −17.5 -110 +17.5 -110
Fanatics −17.5 -110 +17.5 -110
FanDuel −17.5 -110 +17.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet −17.5 -110 +17.5 -110
Caesars −18 -105 +18 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
BetRivers 231.5 -109 231.5 -113
DraftKings 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
ESPN BET 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
Fanatics 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
FanDuel 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
Caesars 232 -110 232 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Antonio SpursSacramento Kings
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 89.5% 10.4%
Best book price incl. vig 90.0% 10.0%
Kalshi contract price 89.6% 10.4%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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