Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets

All Boston Celtics predictions · All Charlotte Hornets predictions

NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 119-80

The model's call
Boston Celtics to win
Model confidence 78.6%
Books consensus 78.6%
Result Boston Celtics won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Boston CelticsCharlotte Hornets
BetMGM -450 +340
BetRivers -530 +380
DraftKings -424 +331
ESPN BET -425 +320
Fanatics -425 +325
FanDuel -450 +350
Hard Rock Bet -475 +350
Novig -376 +365
Caesars -550 +400

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Celtics −10.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Celtics −8.5
Boston Celtics covered −10.5
Total · closing
O/U 209.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Under 209.5 (199 scored)
Spread by book CelticsHornets
BetMGM −10.5 -110 +10.5 -110
BetRivers −11.5 -109 +11.5 -113
DraftKings −10.5 -112 +10.5 -108
ESPN BET −10.5 -105 +10.5 -115
Fanatics −10.5 -110 +10.5 -110
FanDuel −10.5 -112 +10.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet −10.5 -110 +10.5 -110
Caesars −11.5 -105 +11.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 209.5 -110 209.5 -110
BetRivers 211.5 -107 211.5 -115
DraftKings 209.5 -107 209.5 -113
ESPN BET 209.5 -105 209.5 -115
Fanatics 209.5 -110 209.5 -110
FanDuel 209.5 -112 209.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet 209.5 -110 209.5 -110
Caesars 209.5 -110 209.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Boston CelticsCharlotte Hornets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 78.6% 21.4%
Best book price incl. vig 79.0% 20.0%
Kalshi contract price 79.5% 20.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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